The San Francisco Insider

From My Desk

This Month's Numbers

The Number on the Sign Is Not the Number

Last year, 1 in 109 San Francisco homes sold $1 million or more over asking. This year, it's 1 in 10. That's the single stat that defines August's market story, and it says something much bigger about how pricing actually works in this city.

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As of August 18, 1,347 single-family homes have sold in San Francisco this year. 89% of them went over asking at an average of 23% above list. The median list price was $923 per square foot; the median closed price was $1,161. That gap is a deliberate feature of the market, not a glitch.

For perspective: in all of 2025, across 2,182 single-family sales, only 20 homes sold a million or more over asking. That was less than 1%. We're at 10% eight months into 2026.

Some individual results are striking. 2512 Union Street listed at $7.95 million and sold for $15 million — $7.05 million over asking. 58 Woodland Avenue listed just under $2.9 million and sold for $5.5 million, nearly 90% above list.

What "Over Asking" Actually Means

"Sold 30% over asking" doesn't necessarily mean someone paid 30% more than the home was worth. In many cases, the home was intentionally listed below what comparable sales suggested it would command. The gap is a pricing strategy, not a mistake.

Take a home worth roughly $2.2 million. A seller could list at $1.895 million, $2.095 million, $2.195 million, or $2.295 million. Each price sends a different signal, attracts a different buyer pool, and can produce a genuinely different outcome. The highest list price doesn't always produce the highest sale price — sometimes pricing lower creates the competition that pushes the final number higher.

But that strategy isn't right for every property. A desirable single-family home with a deep buyer pool? Aggressive pricing can work beautifully. A condo, a luxury property, a tenant-occupied home, or something with a more limited audience? Completely different approach. There is no universal "San Francisco pricing strategy." It has to match the property, the neighborhood, the competition, and the moment.

For buyers, the flip side matters just as much: don't confuse asking price with affordability. A listing at $1.8 million might not actually be competing in the $1.8 million market. And a home sitting at $2.2 million for several weeks might have more negotiating room than the sticker suggests.

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The Charts

San Francisco by the Numbers

Sources: InfoSparks (SFMLS), Redfin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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National Backdrop

What's Happening Beyond San Francisco

Sources: Freddie Mac, BLS, Investing.com, Fannie Mae, MBA, Wells Fargo, Realtor.com

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The Money Lesson

List Price Is a Strategy, Not a Valuation

141 homes sold $1M+ over asking this year. 1 in 10. Last year it was 1 in 109. The overbid headlines are real, but the lesson behind them matters more: in San Francisco, asking price is often a deliberate strategy, not a reflection of what the home is actually worth.

That distinction has never mattered more. Buyers need to understand what a home is likely to actually sell for before deciding whether to compete. Sellers need a pricing strategy built for their specific property, neighborhood, and buyer pool. And both need an agent who can tell the difference between an intentionally low list price and a genuine opportunity.

If you're on the sidelines, fall could be an interesting window: slightly more inventory now, and any meaningful rate decline would bring more competition, not less.

Insider Spot

Golden Lotus

Vietnamese · 631 Larkin St, Tenderloin

I've been here twice now and the waiter recognized me and my partner — "it's been a while since you've been here!" with a warm smile. That kind of hospitality makes the place feel special, even though it's a casual neighborhood spot for the local Vietnamese community and workers in the area. Shoutout to my friend Diego for the recommendation.

The rare beef salad has a more complete flavor profile than Pho 2000 — peanuty, well-marinated raw onions, limey. Very fresh, refreshing on a hot day, and genuinely high-quality beef. The vermicelli bowl had a better balance of veg to noodle than most places (I usually end up with way more noodle than I want). And the pork chop on the rice plate is insanely good — I don't know how they do it. The meat is incredibly tender, rich in flavor, the kind of bite you want to slow down and savor. I gnaw on the bone. The fish cake on the combo plate is phenomenal too.

message me about any you're interested in. you'll get the insider info :)

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